Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 7.674609e-05 0.000091 0.000107 0.000125 0.000145 0.000166 0.000191
2025-02-23 5.764801e-05 0.000076 0.000098 0.000124 0.000155 0.000190 0.000231
2025-03-02 4.558489e-05 0.000066 0.000090 0.000120 0.000158 0.000201 0.000254
2025-03-09 3.612888e-05 0.000057 0.000083 0.000117 0.000161 0.000213 0.000278
2025-03-16 3.037852e-05 0.000051 0.000079 0.000117 0.000166 0.000226 0.000303
2025-03-23 2.589123e-05 0.000047 0.000076 0.000118 0.000173 0.000241 0.000330
2025-03-30 2.179304e-05 0.000043 0.000073 0.000117 0.000176 0.000252 0.000351
2025-04-06 1.773681e-05 0.000038 0.000068 0.000114 0.000177 0.000258 0.000368
2025-04-13 1.552719e-05 0.000035 0.000067 0.000115 0.000183 0.000273 0.000394
2025-04-20 1.221955e-05 0.000031 0.000061 0.000110 0.000181 0.000275 0.000405
2025-04-27 1.033473e-05 0.000028 0.000059 0.000110 0.000184 0.000285 0.000425
2025-05-04 8.736402e-06 0.000026 0.000057 0.000109 0.000188 0.000295 0.000445
2025-05-11 7.847200e-06 0.000025 0.000058 0.000113 0.000199 0.000316 0.000483
2025-05-18 6.555536e-06 0.000023 0.000056 0.000114 0.000205 0.000331 0.000512
2025-05-25 4.854040e-06 0.000020 0.000052 0.000110 0.000203 0.000334 0.000525
2025-06-01 3.693607e-06 0.000018 0.000049 0.000107 0.000203 0.000341 0.000544
2025-06-08 2.914923e-06 0.000016 0.000047 0.000107 0.000206 0.000352 0.000567
2025-06-15 2.380680e-06 0.000015 0.000046 0.000108 0.000212 0.000366 0.000595
2025-06-22 1.815684e-06 0.000013 0.000044 0.000107 0.000214 0.000375 0.000617
2025-06-29 1.276691e-06 0.000012 0.000041 0.000104 0.000214 0.000380 0.000632
2025-07-06 1.024414e-06 0.000011 0.000040 0.000105 0.000220 0.000395 0.000662
2025-07-13 6.294112e-07 0.000009 0.000037 0.000101 0.000216 0.000395 0.000670
2025-07-20 4.441084e-07 0.000008 0.000036 0.000100 0.000219 0.000405 0.000693